I simply was pointing out that 'inflation expectations' as priced daily by billions of dollars of bonds being traded, not 'gueses' by forecasteers...have been falling..recently..NOT rising.
See the chart...mkt prices do not lie...i was not having view on inflation..just as someone mentioned it...i thght i could add some value . I not care really if gold up or down..just tryiing to help, constructively.
you say... " In my view the current dollar strength is technical and that it is coinciding in equity weakness is no coincidence since the rally so far as been driven by the loose monetary policy."...
maybe i am foolish...but does it really matter whether so called 'moves' are technical or not?...when prices move...the reason does not matter. That is called a market..then 'experts' explain why afterwards.
Was the global equity mkts rally from March just technical? Bet u said so at time...but hey..guess what...the rally is now justified by 'fundamantals'...economies imprioving etc.
Mkts price at least 6mths fwd..surely u know that??
If you wish to be survive trading in longer term...assuming you are shortish term (1-3mth) trading...you will learn to understand that ...sometimes mkts will be irrational...sometimes you eed to realise that more things than simple 'widely known' assumptions/expectations...will not help in s term.
Grov...Just my views..sorry...but your type of unconstructive and i would strongly suggest NAIVE comments...with no real evidence supporting your view..which we could read in newspaper anyway...are not a good reflection on probably many quality individuals on HC
a couple of trading concepts i made up...may help u... Average UP not DOWN Only add to trades WHEN the mkt suggests you are right - price is moving your way, on volume Averaging down becomes 'emotional' and leads to 'stubbornness'. 'Stuff it, I'm right and holding !' The 'mental drain' from holding an increasingly LARGE LOSING position is destructive and prevents you from initiating new alternative likely winning trades - you lose on this one BUT WORSE you miss other trades that WOULD HAVE been profitable - except you were focussed on the 'loser'. Wait until a trade starts performing, THEN add to it with confidence. Averaging down SOMETIMES leads to profit BUT OFTEN Leads to ruin. Trade rationally, not emotionally ! LISTEN' TO THE MARKET'. - price and volume are the ONLY things that matter in short term. Hope is NOT a strategy
Inevitably, you will find yourself in a 'trade' that is not moving your way, after a 'reasonable' time You can be 100% correct with your 'idea' or 'trade' from a theoretical or economic point of view - and 'the mkt' is often very slow to recognise your (correct) view - IT DOES NOT MATTER !!! Once you start 'hoping' the mkt will begin to recognise & reward the rational/economic reasons of your trade - it is time to at least reduce, if not cut. IF IN DOUBT, GET OUT. Simple phrase - but abiding by it will save you a lot more than you will 'miss'. remember - you can always put the trade back on. Use Technicals BUT understand Fundamentals -
Technical analysis is great for entry/exit points , but in the med-long-term, fundamentals will most likely determine performance. DO NOT RELY SOLELY ON EITHER FUNDAMENTALS OR TECHNICALS - both have serious flaws ! Technicals - many people look at the same 'signals' SO especially with s-term trading, you MUST BE AWARE of what the 'crowd' is/will be watching HOWEVER your knowledge of fundamentals can give you a an advantage vs the pure chart traders - and vice versa - Ask yourself - 'the charts look great but is the company's outlook actually improving enough to lead to sustainable buying from 'insto's' ? Or is this move purely 'chart traders' - if so, avoid or 'fade'. Watching the 'drivers' of cost/revenue will give a huge clue - the 'drivers' are 'fundamental'. For short term trading - technicals may be say 65% of your focus, but 35% must remember fundamentals. Time stops - as important as Price stops
Time horizon - always remember your 'initial trading plan' . If you buy 'xyz' for a quick trade - remember it is meant to be 'quick'.. If 'xyz' has not moved as expected within say 3 days of a 1-2 week 'trade' - REDUCE OR CUT ! If the mkt is not rewarding you after 'time' to react to your view - it often continues to keep 'ignoring' you. CUT position - but do NOT GIVE UP - if you still hold the same view and the 'factors' that compelled you to enter the trade initially are still there - WATCH & WAIT - PATIENCE - wait for your price/volume signals to suggest that your trade is NOW RIGHT. Pay higher than you sold -do not be afraid. New trade
Good luck to all..in all mkts..trade safely. Manch
