"The SP has been below the t/o price. This is the clear evidence that:"
The SP is always going to be below the t/o price due to the cost of money. Futhermore of course there is a chance that they won't get FIRB approval, there always has been.
"1. The market expects there is a risk from FIRB
2. The chances of a counter bid is low."
That's not quite correct though there is a relationship.
Formula:
Takeover price * Chance deal with YHZ + alt takeover price * chance of that deal + short term value of FLX without a deal * chance of that.
Let's try
18 *.5 + 25 * .2 + 12 * .3
= 17.6 where stock was a few days ago
18 * .35 + 25 * .2 + 12 * .45
= 16.7 where the stock is now
Did the chance of FIRB approval really just drop by 30% in 2 days? That seems unlikely.
In fact no FIRB approval makes a counter MORE likely as YHZ would lose their right to match competing bids.
It's worth pointing out that I think the forumla should use the long term value of FLX discounted back to today which is much closer to high 20's.
18 * .35 + 25 * .4 + 25 * .25
= 22.50 - Of course FLX isn't trading anywhere near that price but if it did I'd be looking to sell unless the probabilities changed dramatically.
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Last
19.5¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $39.87M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0 |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 16370 | 16.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
19.5¢ | 44660 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 16370 | 0.165 |
2 | 55000 | 0.155 |
1 | 25000 | 0.145 |
1 | 1000 | 0.040 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.195 | 44660 | 2 |
0.200 | 31250 | 1 |
0.210 | 8890 | 1 |
0.230 | 22690 | 2 |
0.250 | 1000 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.12pm 08/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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