My error in the $100 mill being only a Ned Whisky target. My total revenue number forecast for TSI FY26 for what it’s worth was 217 mill (FY22 - 40m, FY23 - 86m, FY24 - 124m, FY25 - 167m). That was before the disappointing FY22-Q1 result which means some downward revisions.
Overheads went up some 200% FY21 vs FY20. Are you seriously suggesting they circa flatline at $25 mill for the next five years while sales go up over 10 times? Sales and marketing alone will be over $25 mill in FY26 by my estimation, before you add in G&A, labour, distribution, share based pay, D&A, all of which together will increase to a minimum of $75 mill overheads in my FY26 estimates.
Where they have some potential leverage perhaps is increasing gross margins to say 30%. Pushing up the eventual cost of agave with revaluations won’t help this but the slight increase in gross margin in FY21 was a positive.
TSI Price at posting:
$1.79 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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