Perhaps as VIC vaccinations hit the highs like NSW, Covid cases will have peaked and will start to decline like in NSW. If that happens that would certainly highlight the efficacy of the vaccines.
When fully opened there will be a spike as Covid spreads widely with cases coming from both the vaccinated and unvaccinated but on a per capita basis it will be the unvaccinated that will figure prominently in those needing hospital care. The only caveat to that imo is the fact that many vaccinated older people with Covid will feature, simply because they were at end of life stage anyway and vaccination does not make you immortal
