time to get excited!!!, page-24

Well it looks like I’ll have to contain my excitement for some time yet.

A very disappointing result for those after a quick return. To be honest, and obviously prevalent in my posts, I myself was expecting success from zones 7 & 8 followed by some level of re-rating in the share price. Nevertheless, I’ll stick to my plan...I’m in for the long term as IMHO the fundamentals have not changed. Besides probably won’t be enough on the buy side tomorrow for me to dump my holding!! lol...

For those who are still not sure what to do tomorrow I hope you paid particular attention to this...

“The Warro 3 appraisal well has generated critical new information for the Warro Joint Venture to guide the future evaluation programs of this field. The confirmation that fracture stimulation can liberate potentially commercial quantities of gas from the tight reservoirs is an important successful step in the appraisal of the field. The flow rate of 5 mmcfpd achieved for a 7 hour period from zones 3 to 6 prior to water breakthrough is considered highly encouraging and representative of the potential of the zones.”

Basically, they have obtained GAS FLOWS FROM ALL ZONES. They just need to AVOID THE WATER ON FUTURE DRILLS.....no ramping intended as we are now a long way from price shacking results. Just reassuring those that intend to hold or are considering coming back (including Ryan of course!!) that this project is still well and truly alive.

And let’s not call it a P&A just yet...“The Warro Joint Venture partners are currently reviewing the alternatives for any further testing on the Warro 3 well.” Even though this is now looking more likely...so what...it’s their first appraisal well and they’ve probably learned all they need to know in order to maximise their chances of success with this project.

Makattack you asked...”was there something about drilling close to the structures that will give a higher likelihood of success?”

The announcement states and in answer to your question...

“Prior to the fracture stimulation of Warro 3, the presence of natural fractures in this part of the field was thought to be a positive feature that could assist the production of gas. The fracture stimulation of zone 1 was designed to tap into the natural fracture system observed in the well on logs. The testing campaign just completed has shown that rather than assisting gas production the natural fractures act as a conduit for water from shallower intervals.”

Unfortunately in the case of Warro 3 it’s the fraccing itself that has created the water issue...lol... At least now they have gathered further evidence in order to minimise water with future wells. However, what concerns me are two things here: 1) by avoiding these existing fault structures by how much will the reserves be reduced 2) if warro 4 avoids these fault structures could the same flow rates be achieved?

Moving forward as the 3D seismic data will need to be obtained before carrying out any further drilling this is the key announcement to come next. I’m assuming that none of this will happen until next year. My guess it’s going to be a veeeerrrry boring rest of the year for TSV.

I for one won’t be topping up...5,590,000 is enough shares for me.


:)