Based on the 3rd Auction results this is my revised forecast for 2021/22:
The offtake agreement revenue should increase each quarter assuming I am correct in thinking only the Yibin agreement is fixed priced until March 2022 and the other two will start to increase.
Revenue
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 0 Auction Results Dmt US$/dmt US$M AUD$M Ship date 1 30-Jul-21 10,000 1,250 13 17 Aug-21 2 14-Sep-21 8,000 2,240 18 24 Nov-21 3 26-Oct-21 10,000 2,350 24 31 Feb-22 4 Nov21-Jun22 50,000 2,350 118 157 5 Total 78,000 2,198 171 229 6 7 Offtake Agreements Dmt US$/dmt US$M AUD$M 8 Q1 85,972 726 62 83 9 Q2 90,000 1,000 90 120 10 Q3 100,000 1,200 120 160 11 Q4 111,028 1,500 167 222 12 Total 387,000 1,134 439 585 13 14 Total 2021/22 465,000 1,313 610 814 15
Based on that Revenue estimate 2021/22 should generate the following all in AUD:
Production dmt 465,000
Revenue $814
EBITDAX $530M
NPAT $395M
Net surplus cash $345M (before JV spend)
PE Ratio 16.4
If the General Lithium and Ganfeng offtake agreements increase more in line with current pricing then the above numbers will look even better.
A PE ratio of 16 for a company in strong growth mode is way too low.
The market is clearly factoring in substantial falls in the Lithium price but with not much new supply coming online for at least the next two years I think prices will hold for at least two years and maybe longer.
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