$200 Party, page-142

"I recall those who bought during GFC lows calling MQG overvalued in 2014/15 when it hit $80+ and many sold, which was great for them as the price softened into the $60s during the Asian Crisis in 2016. After that, the share price action is history. I believe MQG will be much higher than my $80 buy in when I sell also."

At each of those points in time you reference, MQG's P/B ratio was 0.8x (GFC), 1.6x (2014) and 1.8x (2016).

So those were indeed good buying opportunities - for the reason that the stock was cheap (you omitted to mention the Greek debt crisis in 2011/12, when the stock was also very cheap, at a P/B of <1.0x. And, of course, during the Covid market crash last year).

Today that metric is 3.2x.



So the valuation circumstances which made MQG a good investment at various points in time, do not exist today.

Of course, I happily accept that I might be wrong, and that the stock could go on to a P/B of 3.5x, or 3.8x or even higher, but investing on the basis of something which is already at a record valuation, on the assumption that it is going to reach an even greater records, is not a wealth creation path I'd ever follow.

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