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$5.22 tassal group limited

Ann: Tassal 2021 AGM Presentation, page-15

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28/10/21

12:56

Post #: 57144425
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Originally posted by dabozza: ↑

Thanks @Hopeful9 - I have had a live twitter stream of the AGM, and you can check that out on my FinTwit account if you are interested.

I asked a couple of questions at the end about future potential growth, but apart from saying they are 'opportunistic' it doesn't seem like it's high on the radar. Suppose, they can always just turn on the taps for prawns growth CAPEX when they are ready.

I have updated my forecast cash flow statement, and included FY30 targets. While I slightly tweaked down my EBITDA margins on salmon, really no change for FY22 or FY23 forecasts from my side. Into the long term, I still reckon we should be expecting 2x EBITDA and 4x FCF by 2030. If you run that backwards and assume a not-so-demanding EV/EBITDA x7 multiple (our historical point), and 50% NPAT payout ratio, you get some pretty good results: 11% CAGR on capital gains, and 17% dividend yield on today's cost.

Tell me where I'm wrong:

Expand

Interest on Debt 2% of $348m = $6.97m
Interest on Lease 4% of $209.1m =$8.36m

So $15.3m Interest rather than the $25m you allocated in FY22.

(but im surprised by those reported interest rates, expected them to be higher)

TGR Price at posting: $3.57 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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