Ann: September 2021 Quarterly Activities Report, page-44

The key point from todays webcast was that the contract price will vary roughly in proportion to the Chinese Lithium Carbonate price so the contract price for 2022/23 may be higher or lower than the US$1650-1800 Ken says he is currently getting.
The good thing for me is it gets rid of the myth about the contracts only having annual increases but it does expose the company to price movements both up and down each quarter.

For me even if the prices drop a bit next year these fantastic prices should enable the company to pay the debt off and have funding to ramp production up to the 1,000,000 dmt pa and dare I say start paying dividends.

I also think another positive from the webcast was that Ken did not seem worried when asked about labor shortages and hence higher labor costs and he also indicated the double jab requirement for workers also should not be a major issue.

Based on production of 580,000 dmt for 2022/23 here is a range of outcomes assuming they spend $120M Capex (all in AUD):

Spod Price US$1700/dmt
EBITDAX $955M
NPAT $615M
Net cash $550
PE 10.1

Spod Price US$1200/dmt
EBITDAX $590M
NPAT $360M
Net Cash $295M
PE 17.3

Spod Price US$2000/dmt
EBITDAX $1.17B
NPAT $770M
Net Cash $705M
PE 8.1

When comparing the Net profit with 2021/22 its worth noting tax should be a lot lower than 30% in 2021/22 due to accumulated losses being used to reduce tax payable.