FMG does not sell iron ore at a 30% discount. Pigs might fly has turned up again and has not changed. He is still quoting inaccurate un researched facts in an emotive way. His goal is to scare you into selling.
What pigs might fly does not tell you is this:
1. The modern era of iron ore with the Pilbara as the main producer and China the main customer is best characterised by the last decade or so.
2. During this period IO prices have averaged USD110 factoring in inflation. The FMG grade discount has been circa 15% on average.
3. At this average price, with an exchange rate of 0.75 and a PE for the shares of 10, FMG is worth well north of $30 per share.
4. FMG has been investing in Iron Bridge which will be commissioned next year producing 22mtpa at 67% Fe. This will attract a grade premium. Following commissioning Iron Bridge will add more income to FMG.
Pigs might Fly also does not tell you FMG is net cash ( ie it's cash in the bank is higher than its debt) and has a track record of being generous with dividends but also reinvesting profits widely.
Pigs might Fly also does not tell you about the dividend. At current prices expect roughly $3.50 per annum franked.
FMG is paying my kids private school fees with its dividends. Pigs might Fly definitely doesn't like talking about the dividend but I do because it is huge.
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