Good News & Bad News, page-4634

If the market was forward thinking rather than backward thinking and the big boys stopped manipulating the share price we would be a lot higher.

Forward thinking to 2025/26 PLS should be debt free, have stage 3 development paid for and up and running, have surplus cash in the bank to either further develop new growth strategies, pay decent dividends and even considering starting a share buyback program.

These are the possible outcomes by 2025/26 with Posco joint venture up and running, stage 3 up and running and not including anything for midstream based on production of 1,000,000 dmt assuming annual CAPEX $100M (all in AUD).

Spod USD$1000/dmt
EBITDAX $860M
NPAT $520M
Surplus cash $325M
PE 11.9
Annual dividend (75% of cash) 0.083 cent Franked 100% (gross yield 5.6%)

Spod USD$1300/dmt
EBITDAX $1.24B
NPAT $785M
Surplus cash $590M
PE 7.9
Annual dividend (75% of cash) 0.151 cent Franked 100% (gross yield 10.2%)

Spod USD$1600/dmt
EBITDAX $1.62B
NPAT $1.05B
Surplus cash $860M
PE 5.9
Annual dividend (75% of cash) 0.219 cent Franked 100% (gross yield 14.8%)

So as you can see the company should have ample surplus cash to pay very decent dividend and still look for more growth opportunities.
As long as the Spod price can stay above US$1000/dmt I see no reason why the share price should not at least double from current prices.
If the Spod price does stay around the US$1800/dmt for the next three years I see no reason why the company would not use the surplus cash to start buying back shares and also look to acquire new assets which will further enhance their growth prospects.