OK. Long term contracts (85% sales) realise 15% of any POO fluctuations. Spot sales (15% sales) realise close to 100% of LNG (JKM) price fluctuations.
So during this 6 month oil (super) cycle, we have seen POO rise 50% (from under $60 to over $80) and JKM rise 100% (from $20 to $40).
WPL should have risen (85% x 15% x 50% = 6.5%) + (15% x 100% x 100% = 15%) or around 20% over the past six months.
At $27 early this year is was over-bought, and at $20 it was over-sold. It should be trading between $24 and $32.5
That sort of makes sense to me.
WPL@$30, page-3068
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