Risk is often binary: Because value creation is tied to risk reduction, and because risk is reduced through experiments and studies, a company's value often changes dramatically when new data from studies is released.
Because studies are generally blinded to prevent bias, the data from a study is usually revealed all at once at the end of a study. So big swings in value can happen literally overnight.
Positive binary events often catalyze a fundraise.Drugs become exponentially more valuable over time: Drugs aren't really that valuable until around Phase 2. This is why most venture capitalists prefer to fund companies that develop their own drugs rather than just discover new targets or hits and then try to sell them to pharma. In our model, each hit is worth $2.7M and it costs $2.1M to get each hit.
A Phase 2 molecule is worth $249M and it costs $74M to get to Phase 2. A Phase 3 molecule is worth $1.1B and it costs $154M to get to that point. Unless you can generate high-quality hits or leads very quickly and cheaply, you're better off taking drugs to the clinic yourselves rather than partnering too early.
Itsa: Atl1102 for DMD phase 2b say phase 3
because we are 1 trial away from commercialisation
worth : $1.1 billion
Acromegaly phase 2b worth $240 mill
just on these 2 drugs we should have a Mac $134 billion..
thats $180 per share…
then
Because DMD has no real drug Atl1102 can easily capture 50% of a 4 billion market..
This is why when we open I’m not expecting a sp drop but expecting it to go past 40c
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