Spacelink Valuation thread, page-27

Interesting.

Trying to unpack this.

If you plug in a quick and dirty IRR then from an initial outflow of -700m and then a ten year recurring cash flow of $260m, then this gives you a circa 35% IRR.

Put another way, a $260m pa yearly revenue flow gives you an EBITDA number of $199m. Look at the Spacelink indicative P&L in the Preso for this number. And not baking in the yearly revenue ramp up from $77m in 2024 launch to $590m in 2026 as data utilisation increases.

So assume EOS share is 50% at steady $199m USD EBITDA. Im assuming project debt amortisation of $120m over five years. Then covert back at 0.72 AUD exchange rate and the EOS share then is worth circa $4.36 a share say at a PE ratio of 12 assuming 151m shares on issue. A 12 multiple justifiable given Constellation 2 and 3. Question mark as to where these are housed, ie in the Spacelink seperate entity and if EOS share is fixed in the follow ons. Would be interesting to see who owns the spectrum etc and if EOS.ASX retains control of this.

EOS share of 60% gives me a value of around $5.23 a share.

If you get a ramp up to $459m EBITDA in Year three then the valuation becomes ridiculous.