be alert ... not alarmed ... and have a plan , page-66

I guess when BIO and 9L show up within few days of each other there's going to be grief for the rally but no complaints as I love a down trending market too, if that is what has started.

But perhaps it is not quite time to start cracking the bubbly just yet.

Last night finished on the low (close 1029.85 low 1029.45), just above a 1/4 retracement (1027.44) and just below a 23.4% retracement (1030.39) of the rally from 8 July so that's good for a reasonable bounce right there.

The prior 2 retracements have these 1/4 retracements too, remember? Slightly more in fact than the 1/4, the second being slightly deeper than the first.

So far, this is still the shallowest of the three.

The level to watch for on the way up (assuming we don't just continue straight on down tonight and I would say that we probably won't although that employment report is due at 8:30 am and if that is viewed by the market as bad we probably will continue straight down) is the prior swing low of last Friday at 1041.57. If it turned down again before then, that's a strong indication of a fast trend down in progress. The more points (or space on the chart) between that low (1041.57) and the high at the down turn, the more powerful the move down.

If it goes above that level, the extent to which it does so gives an indication of the strength of the move down. The higher up it goes, the weaker the move down.

The prior 2 retracements since 8 July have had these large range down days to exhaust the sellers and perhaps this is the down day the rally needed to be in a position to move up into the high in 2 about weeks from now, which is the next time as 6 October is done and dusted.

Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.