I really like TNT management and the presentations they've made to the market, and the cybersecurity theme and market drivers are very attractive. But I don't understand when the company has been emphasising how important is the question of organic growth, the Revenue/EBITDA numbers don't seem to be suggesting consistent growth. If you simply add together all the revenues of the acquisitions at the time they were acquired (including the latest Loop), you get ~$118.66m (and ~$20.437m for EBITDA). So organic growth implies an average revenue of >$118.66m/y or ~$30m/q. It actually looked like they were achieving this for FY21 Q4 (~$38m/q), but now we've dropped back to $26.9m/q for FY22 Q1. Yes there are seasonal factors at work, but frankly the Q1 revenues were very disappointing, and I am no longer convinced TNT has any significant organic growth in the revenue. A $30m/q revenue was my expectation here, and they've dipped below that. Management can't just run around saying the individual acquisitions are now performing significantly better under the TNT banner if the numbers suggest otherwise.
All IMHO, DYOR
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