AVG 0.00% 14.5¢ australian vintage ltd

Ann: AVL 2021 Annual Report, page-9

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  1. 628 Posts.
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    Dividend discount model perspective around 70c to 80c. I get this valuation assuming a modest uptick in next years dividend to 3c.This is based on a 35% payout ratio on earnings of 21-22 mill or 8.6cps.

    Using the above projection I get 0.03/(0.1-0.06) = 0.75 or 75c hence my range. My basis of assumption assumes your cost of capital or minimum return is 10% with AVG delivering a medium term compound growth rate of 6%.

    If you used a discount cashflow model based on earnings with the above numbers, I get a slightly higher valuation of around 85c assuming we discount out 10 years with a discount rate of 10% and compound growth of 6%.

    However, free cashflow earnings and non-cash earnings differ materially and the general consensus appears AVG has reasonably higher free cash earnings + the strong balance sheet with a healthy NTA I would give the valuation an additional 15% - 20% buffer which brings a range of 98c to 102c
    Last edited by Chao88: 05/11/21
 
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