They will be consuming more Recycled scrap meaning they will have less scrap to export to China, meaning Chinas demand for Ore increases.
The largest steel producer in the US is Nucor - a scrap recycler. Recycling already exceeds pig iron production by a large margin. They will be importing more pig Iron, and finished steel from Asia, which increases demand for Australian Iron Ore.
The US steel industry is centred around the Great Lakes. it uses Taconite from Minnesota and Canada (on fixed supply contracts) as feedstock. There is no access to the Great Lakes for large bulk carriers.
Brazil is far closer and has better IO than Australia.
you also mentioned in a prior post that only 6% of Chinese steel is exported, this is not actually true. 6% of their steel production is exported as finished steel such as coil and rods etc but that doesn’t include all the steel exports in products such as nails, screws, washing machines, cars, furniture, fridges, ships, canned goods etc etc etc
It is totally insignificant compared with domestic infrastructure use. Residential development alone uses over 250MTpa.
FMG Price at posting:
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