Yes, can agree, no immediate supply issue with REE....but within a couple of years (just when ARU is commencing production) there definitely will be, and this will see NdPr oxide pricing literally jump +++ likely to see over $US150 per kg even if briefly. This will be needed to bring on more supply/miners/processors (like ARU).
Projected EV and wind turbine production out to 2030 does show a massive undersupply of REEs in particular NdPr, coupled with COP26 Net-Zero by 2050, this resource being developed is a certainty....the biggest question is
1.When is the most opportune time to bring this resource to market - the market will decide that along with prodding (ie $$support) from Western Govts.to ensure supply chain diversification (ie non-Chinese)
2.Operational issues once FEED completed and FID decision attained - getting this operation up and running is no mean feat and to do it without too many/expensive hiccups, is NOT EASY. (The Chinese took 20+yrs to achieve this), and yes ARU has been at it long enough (yes I have been a shareholder since 2011) The issue of Thorium handling will not be insurmountable, but a costly tricky one for ARU (but already costed in the cost base of the DFS)
3.Does management have the skill/competency to not sell out current shareholders at too cheap a price. The last CR in July/Aug revealed poor form on this front. IMHO although this might have a SP blast-off when OffTakes are announced it probably might reach 30-33c for a brief period of time, but realism will take over and the price will pull back to the low 20s again, and then when funding / going to the market for the rest of the money eventuates after/around FID decision in Jul/Aug 2022, Gav and Pete will be selling us out at around 18c for upwards of $500mil in funding, where existing shareholders will only get a small fraction of new equity, the lions share going to offtakers, Commercial debt funders (Senior Debt), PrEq, Soph investors, heck even ECAs & Foreign Govts Agencies will probably convert their debt to equity at 18c.My one wish is that they offer existing shareholders some form of Converting Pref Share issue to assist with funding and allow conversion at owners discretion to equity at 18c.
As always DYOR, its just my opinion, after having seen sooo many goings on with ARU this past 10 years.
Disclosure I am now under 1.0 million shares and sold another 80K this late pm at 0.245 for good gain, as although I am a believer in ARU and its fundamentals I am also a realist, and know that things don't always go to plan. I am quite certain that I can buy in further at under 20c sometime in the next 9 months (esp around CR/funding time likely in July 2022) I can sit on my current holding as average entry is 9.5c
As I have posted before this stock is for the longterm holder, who is a believer in the fundamentals, and believes THE WORLD needs this resource to help arrest climate change. This is definitely not a get-rich-quick stock.
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