Hi Shadowsfury,
Regarding your 'good money after bad concern' - here's my view.
I have been averaging down recently & intend some more as iron ore news continues to weigh on sentiment.
I see it as a positive that GEN management timed their IPO well earlier this year which raised enough cash to move Baniaka to the PFS stage.
It's also positive that they intend production start-up in 2024 when conditions will be more stable with iron ore perhaps averaging at US$75/t or so (lower than now but shipping will also be lower than now).
Despite the sharp price fall to a now US$89/t for 62% Fe, lets look at a snapshot of GEN if it was in production right now.
Bell Potter has FOB costs at US$45/t plus $3/t AISC for life of mine (LOM)
Total costs $48/t
Shipping currently US$26/t (Brazil to China)
https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/cdfinew2.jspSo total cost CFR China $74/t.
62% Fe at US$89/t
65% Fe at US$105.50/t
This shows currently each Fe % point attracts premium of US$5.50/t
Therefore GEN's average 64% product would receive US$100/t.
Profit margin today then would be US$26/t x 5mtpa for annual EBITDA US$130 Million.
So GEN would be very profitable in the current conditions vs it's now low market cap.
In my opinion, GEN's low Capex requirement will see it get into production where others such as HIO & MGT will struggle with financing due to their large Capex requirements.
