My 2 cents worth before I disappear for good ( because i think UMC will disappear for good)..... This is all IMO, with a little bid of experience added....but I may well be wrong. DYOR.
1) The fact there is a trading halt and the wording suggests that UMC have received a conditional bid, and they need time to negotiate a price and conditions that will enable the Board to recommend it to shareholders, or not. I would expect UMC to go into suspension for up to a week at most, I very much doubt they will trade tomorrow. To early.
2) The fact that the "usual suspects" are not in a trading halt means that the suitor is of a pretty big size.
3) The suitor is NOT Chinese unless it is CRM which I seriously doubt. One thing I have learned over many years in the mining game is that the Chinese do not come over the top of another Chinese firm. They do things first and foremost for the benefit of the country and always back away from "cutting someones lunch"; Unless this bid is from CRM (and why would it be?) then it is NOT Chinese.
4) I seriously doubt it is RIO or BHP...why?....because BHP and Rio can keep the courts busy for decades on why third parties should not be allowed access to their railways. People who have read my posts in the past will know that I have never believed UMC would get onto BHP/Rio rail without a railhead agreement. Why?....because BHP/Rio don't need them.
5) So who could it be????...... unless something comes out of left-field then it is a company that didn't need to go into a trading halt, therefore of size, it is not Chinese so is probably domestic.
My bet is a domestic producer of size, not BHP or Rio.... my bet is FMG, all script bid... the grade and proximity is probably good enough to bid.
as I said I could be competley wrong.... it may very well be BHP for cash to keep the Chinese out.... but that is not my bet. The next week will tell.
cheers, Tony.
Good luck guys, sorry to see another IO junior disappear....but that's business.
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