question for melua, page-2

Not yet as this deal has not been voted on.

I see no future for the new BBI as an investment. BAM do not care what the new price will be. They are interested in eventually owning all the assets and getting access to all the cashflow. The new stock will be very illiquid and I don't see instos being interested in it. The instos there now are going to exit at a profit (hopefully) very early. There will be a cap on the price for a long, long time.

This is why I am still not entirely convinced BEPPA holders will actually see 43c of value. That 43c is based on the market pricing the new BBI at 8.7X EBITDA. What if the market doesn't buy the story and prices it at a discount? Are BEPPA worth 43c then? No. What if all SPARCS decide they want out in November? Lots of "ifs" and "maybes" before BEPPA get even 40c.
The EV is said to be $5.548Bn with debt of $3.762Bn giving net equity of $1.786Bn.
Of this, BEPPA owns 16%. This equals $285M which divided into 780M BEPPAs gives a value post dilution of 36.6c. Add in the outstanding interest and you arrive at 43c PRIOR to any SPARCS conversion.
Now, what if the market values the equity post everything at 10% less than the prospectus numbers.
Take 10% off $5.548Bn and you get $5Bn. Take off debt and you end up with net equity of $1.238Bn. Now, BEPPA own 16% of the new BBI. That equals $198M. Divide that into the current 780M BEPPAs and you receive 25c in the dollar, not 36.6c. So, a 10% drop in real market valuation post dilution gives an additional 31.6% drop in actual BEPPA value.
This is very wishy washy and it all depends on what the market values the new BBI at.