Hi everyone
Boy am I glad I took the weekend off. I am surprised the hot copper didnt burn.
I have slowly been doing my research as I said I would. This is what I understand and if incorrect please comment:
1. I am sorry for all those who bought at prices that are in excess of 1.5c. This is a developmental project. It either goes well or it doesn't. This project has not gone to plan. However anybody that values their equity at anything more than today's share price is fooling themselves. So anybody saying they cannot get out as they are waiting for the SP to reach what they paid for it is emotionally attached to this share. That's not clever as they will keep holding it even as it plummets to earth. This share is worth 1.5c for its potential nothing more nothing less.
2. The past investments that are now accumulated losses are gone as is (in most cases) the human capital that incurred those losses.
3. Early adopters. Here's the quote from one. "its not easy being an early adopter, I dont recommend it. An old wild west quote. "Pioneers are the ones with arrows in their backs.!" And it is usually not the early adopters that make the money." This is true for INT - The right decision but couldnt raise the cash in time. misfires, closures of divisions. Management purges. Questions - more money and yet even more money. So as far as I am concerned this is the last chance for this company. As the early adopter its now make or break for it.
4. This is the last gasp chance - If it fails to turn a profit by the 2H 2010 you can close up shop.Its even probable that someone will buy the corpse at negligible cost.
5. I do think that UXC is moving into their (INT) space. It has a better cash flow and is profitable. (IMO this creates credibility and also security into the future) However it is IMO struggling to focus as its customer base keeps widening its area of operations and Resource companies are also a focus as stated by them. However the customer base and their knowledge of smart metering and new offerings to utilities and state governments suggests that their size will get them opportunities unless INT closes the loop by delivering.
6. NEC. I cannot find any documentation from NEC and its relationship with INT or Utiligy. So in fact its not an endorsement its just a liason at present.
7. To be balanced however all the present fuss about wanting results now is unrealistic. New management cannot be held responsible for past management. You cannot decide to ascribe behaviours of past managers as to the new ones unless there is a link.Clearly Gestro was an acquired person and not a director until January 2009. As he has taken over entirely you cannot attribute the past behaviours to him.
8. In this type of technology as I understand it it has a significant lead time from intent or agreement to implementation. So I would not expect to see revenue for about a year. So I am looking for significant improvements in 3rd quarter of annual year being January 2010 to March 2010 and further confirmation of this trend in the last quarter. If these two quarters are not profitable than basically your investment is worthless.
9. Shouting and wanting instant gratification and even AGM attacks really wont help. As the Yanks say you are in the "ninth innings 2 down and 2 runs behind with the bases full but you have to hit the home run to win" Gestro has all the incentive to make it work over 100million shares and no way to sell. He is in it sink or swim. He has done as much as he can even increasing his equity to 28 September.
10. Given its track record no one will look at this without an annual report with profit for the year. Positive cash flow and no more need for shareholders to drop money.
11. If it gets through this it will start making money and in fact I don't see then remaining independent. I see it as getting an offer to become part of someone else. I cannot ever see how you get to make enough money in the next 5 years to push the SP beyond 10c. I started at breakeven 2010 , $2.9m 2011 and then went up 50% each year.on a 20 times PE that only gets you to 10.22c per share. That's good a reasonable return on 1.5c now but not going to shoot the lights out IMO. I think that what you will see is a share based offer in 2011 for around 4/5c if all goes well.Do the exercise and you will see that past issues of shares has made this a very difficult profit growth. The company is already valued at 28M with only 2.8m in assets. IMO the company should be trading at less than 1c today on existing performance.
12. So my assumption is that this looks a reasonable investment but its not a no brainer at all and given that if it fails its worthless it makes it a risky investment.
11. So Kiril have another look not as a shareholder but from the outside and look at how fast you think they can turn it around and what competition will enter whilst they do this and then grow profits for this to be a 10 bagger within 3 years it needs to be making a profit of above 9.5million in 2012. The thing that floored me was getting to a 0.5c EPS. See if you think you can get there from here even at a 30PE its a huge ask.
So I am an investor in this but think that as reality bites this will trade towards the 0.008c unless I am missing something and if it doesn't get there than the good news may well mean it never gets there but I dont believe that it fairly valued at present.
So to all those out there moaning the price I think its too high for where the company is at today.
12. Looking at risk reward I must be missing something? Please help if u can?
I still hold my initial investment and am hoping someone can put me right by saying listen if this turns around it can make XXXX Million quickly.
I am a better long term investor than trader so am not interested in short term movement but I really cannot find a reason for everyone to be so positive about this share.
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