News: PTM Platinum Asset Management Posts FY Net Profit Attributable Of $157.7 Million, page-242

Having watched Clifford's presentation at the AGM, he spent most of his time explaining his macro view and how that informs his asset allocation strategy. He started off explaining why he thinks Tesla is over valued. I thought well this is good, he is focusing on one company. But then he went on to extrapolate the valuation of Tesla to the valuation of the nasdaq.

At one point he mentioned how PTM was successful with its shorting strategy during the dot com bust and that he is expecting success with his current shorting strategy.

As can be seen in the following graph, the nasdaq disconnected from the S&P500 during the dot com boom and bust.



This is not a repeat of the period 1999-2001. The nasdaq has been more or less tracking along with S&P500 for the past year as shown below.



By shorting the nasdaq, Clifford is effectively shorting the US economy. He has been doing so for the past 4 plus years. He has done so, erractically as evidenced by the rapid changes in shorting levels over periods as short as a week. Has the US economy been rolling over the past year? No. Why short it spasmodically? Why react to irrational fear?

His gauge has been set. His reading of the global macro picture is expressed in his shorting percent of the nasdaq

The US economy is a long way from rolling over. My 5 traffic lights are all green. Risk = likelihood x consequences. Kiss.