BNL blue star helium limited

Ann: High Concentration of 8.8% Helium in Voyager Water Well, page-90

  1. 815 Posts.
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    For those that are interested I thought I might post my father's method of working out a fair value for commodity stocks that are in production having already posted a method of how to gauge a fair value based on industry t/O offers and the like from a in ground resource amount noting in-ground values for different commodities the % amount is different but gas is 7% .
    Currently because we do not know a lot of critical information regarding production I will need to make up some costs and out output assumptions to give an example, whether these assumptions are correct or not doesn't really matter, just this simple methodology does.
    So he used to say it's like counting sheep in a pen, guess how many there are divide by two and times by the number of tools in a sidchrome tool kit. Funny basted. What he meant by that was the number of sheep is revenue minius cost and payment of any debt divided by two times 12, the ÷2 being representive of $1 for you and $1 for the company for expansion and the ×12 being representive of a fair P/E ratio.
    to give an example of this for bnl using made up figures it would work like this. Lets say bnl using thier small modular approach produce 20000cf of gas per day from three modules = around 10mcf of gas pa. After processing and seperation @8% hellium we would have 800000cf which would equate in dollar terms to $180m cash flow @285mcf market price. If we then minus administration, seperation transport and other production costs off that at lets say 60% we are left with $72m net profit. So a fair mc for a company with that profit using this method would be 72m ÷2×12=432m .. or .28 per share in approximately 2 to 3 years if production is at theses levels.
    PS please note this method doesn't take into account any speculative assumptions, its only a gauge of fair value once in production.
 
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