they had another product in the pipeline that they had high hopes of with strong clinical data leading up to a phase 2 trial, which ultimately didn't perform... so here they are stuck with one shot on goal, and probably not enough funding to finish their two phase 3 trials on their own.. which in a way, forces them into either another cap raise, debt or a partnership. albeit negotiating with only one shot on goal, and little funding isn't going to be favourable for OPT IMO.
so no matter how promising this current trial is, there is still risk that it will fail and if it does, for whatever reason... this company is pretty much done. With no revenue in the horizon, it's at least another 4-5 years after 2023/2024 before they get another shot at a phase 3 trial and all the dilution that will need to be taken on in that time will mean this is going to be a bit of a trainwreck.
so I think its a mix of poor management and failed trials, leading to where they are now... worst still, their trial won't read out until end of 2023 at the earliest... what year are we now? end of 2021... a lot can happen in 2 years, and given markets are at all time highs... if it corrects, this will have no legs to stand on.
so while a partnership will mean I'll have to pay 20-30% more on open post announcement, that's a fair price to pay to ensure there is funding and the trials will read out.. but even with that, the price will probably drift back lower after, given how long it is between now and end of 2023.
OPT Price at posting:
$1.21 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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