latest ratings, page-4

BA-Merrill Lynch 14/10/2009 1 Buy, Medium Risk $5.75 33.7%
As the broker had flagged yesterday, Transurban has indeed signed a deal with the NSW Mafia to widen the M2 from two lanes to three and add two new toll ramps. It's a good deal for TCL, the broker suggests, adding 4 years to the concession (2049) and an 8% toll increase on completion.

Funding options are being considered but the broker expects a $290m capital raising for the M2, with the potential to go to $600m if TCL pursues acquisition of the Lane Cove Tunnel and M5 widening project as the broker hopes.

JP Morgan 14/10/2009 3 Neutral $5.40 25.6%
Target $5.40 (was $5.30). The company has reached in-principle agreement for the M2 Upgrade Project and on the broker's numbers the move should be value positive for the group.

It doesn't expect the announcement to act as any major share price catalyst however and so the broker retains its Neutral rating, with only a modest increase in price target.

UBS 14/10/2009 1 Buy $5.25 22.1%
UBS has lifted its target on the stock by 20c to $5.25 following the M2 upgrade agreement with the NSW Government.

Although funding details are yet to be disclosed, UBS feels an equity raising is likely.

TCL is seen as a “core portfolio position.”

Macquarie 14/10/2009 1 Outperform $5.39 25.3%
The long awaited announcement of the M2 widening contract increases valuation by 1%, the broker suggests, and means Transurban will be raising some $400-500m of new capital.

However, the M2 doesn't have to happen for 12 months and TCL can hold off raising in the meantime, looking to try to cement the M5 widening deal as well, the broker suggests. Either way, the broker's valuation is well ahead of the current share price.

Deutsche Bank 14/10/2009 1 Buy $5.45 26.7%
Toll has shaken hands with the NSW government over the M2 upgrade project and it will cost the group $550m.

Yet with 8% toll price growth being targeted and an expected 18% increase to daily traffic numbers, the broker thinks "the project fundamentals look sound".

The broker believes the $550m can be funded without the need for an equity raising, while also predicting there will be no changes to distribution arising from the deal. The Buy call and price target are maintained.