FMG

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Iron ore price, page-41254

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jasecutler

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25/11/21

16:38

Post #: 57857451
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Originally posted by Wang44: ↑

WOW!!!
How the situation has changed regards to the iron ore price and FMG. There are some great contributes on this site, great discourse on iron ore mined in China by jb206, his info source says the China mines between 900 million to 1 Billion tonnes of iron ore a year. That is what I discovered as well, China is the biggest Fe miner in the world and it is the level of its output which has a big bearing on the Fe price. I find it weird that the financial press does not discuss Chinas own iron ore mining industry. It has been a wild 6 months for FMG price so here is my opinion on what has happened.
The Chinese government was very unhappy with iron ore at $230 a tonne back in July, so began a planned down ramping exercise on the price. It started with the very public ordering of cut backs at its own state owned blast furnaces to cut back production, with the reason of cutting carbon pollution and wanting blue sky for the Winter Olympics. That was down with the knowledge in my opinion of the shorters of the iron ore markets and shorters of the major iron ore miners. A lot of the down grades on iron ore prices and miner were all made in a few weeks by the major banks. The shorters then moved in with the help of down rampers to push FMG price below $14.00 in the hope a panic would drop the price to the predicted $10.00 range and lower that some of the investment banks were calling. The same thing was happening to BHP and Rio to a leaser extent.
The fall in the iron ore price was the most in history over the time period. Thats why we have had the endless down ramping by the flying pig and others.
It was interesting though that through this AF was not worried at all by the FMG price decline. In my opinion it is because AF knows that iron ore has to stay above $100 a tonne for the Chinese miners to survive because they have such poor grade iron ore, jb206 touched on this in an earlier post, below $100.00 a tonne they are loosing money and would either go broke or have to be subsidised by the Chinese government to stay open.
1 Billion tonnes or iron ore is a lot, 70% of it poor grade. So I think that when iron ore touched $80.00 a tonne they called a halt to their own down ramping, I do not think they told the shorters this and this is why they are getting burnt. The Chinese have achieved what they wanted, iron ore at around $100.00 a tonne so their own mines can stay open and plenty of high quality of iron ore available on the open market for them to buy at a price well south of $230 a tonne price it was in July. The Chinese wanted the iron ore piece down but not collapsing to $50.00 a ton, that price would destroy their own miners! At between $100 and $120 a tonne FMG will be making good money so I am looking forward to a dividend that may be more than the $1.20 that I was thinking of for March.
I was going back fishing but with iron ore back over $100.00 a tonne as promised I have to buy a big barbecue for the street party for the FMG contributors. I have all the pork products ready but I am looking for a fat roasting pig to put on the spit roast. There was one flying around last week but seems to have disappeared, he probably was too skinny to roast anyway having lost money shorting FMG stock.

Cheers, Take Care and Good Luck

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"At between $100 and $120 a tonne FMG will be making good money"

It costs us $14 per tonne. We make good money regardless.

Edit: I will say that these bigger profit margins will provide a greater purse for our FFI development

Last edited by jasecutler: 25/11/21

FMG Price at posting: $17.88 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last $19.54		Change -0.370(1.86%)		Mkt cap ! $60.16B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
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Iron ore price, page-41254

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