What We Know About the New Coronavirus Variant Now Spreading
By Lisa Du, Naomi Kresge, and Jason Gale
26 November 2021, 13:51 GMT+10
Updated on 28 November 2021, 14:58 GMT+10
What We Know About the New Covid Variant
WATCH: Bloomberg Intelligence’s Sam Fazeli discusses what he knows so far about the new strain.
A new variant of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 has been identified in Botswana and South Africa, with officials there saying it’s highly concerning. The new strain, first called B.1.1.529, was named the omicron variant by the World Health Organization. Fears that it could exacerbate a winter Covid surge in many countries, evade vaccine-induced protection, and frustrate efforts to reopen economies sent a wave of risk aversion across global markets Friday. Stock indexes and crude oil tumbled while Treasuries rallied. Governments around the world have started banning travelers from South Africa and nearby countries.
Here’s what we know so far:
1. What’s different about this variant?
The omicron variant is characterized by some 30 changes, three small deletions and one small insertion in the spike protein, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Half of the changes are in the receptor binding domain -- the part of the spike protein used to bind to human ACE-2, the enzyme the coronavirus targets to enter cells and cause an infection. Mutations there can make the spike protein less recognizable to the antibodies made in response to vaccination or a natural infection. At least three mutations are associated with helping the virus escape detection from antibodies, Vinod Balasubramaniam, a virologist at the Jeffrey Cheah School of Medicine & Health Sciences at Monash University in Malaysia, told the Australian Science Media Centre. Another mutation appears to increase the ability of the virus to gain entry to human cells, making it more transmissible, he said. Omicron is the most divergent SARS-CoV-2 variant detected in large numbers so far, raising concern that it may result in greater transmissibility, a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, and an increased risk for reinfections, the ECDC said in a Nov. 26 report. Researchers are still trying to determine whether it spreads more easily and likely to cause more illness than other strains.
Explainer: Alpha, Delta and More. Why Virus Variants Cause Alarm: QuickTake
2. Where did it come from?
The variant was first detected in samples collected on Nov. 11 in Botswana and on Nov. 14 in South Africa, according to the ECDC. A scientist at the UCL Genetics Institute in London said it likely evolved during a chronic infection of an immuno-compromised person, possibly in an untreated HIV/AIDS patient. South Africa has 8.2 million people infected with HIV, the most in the world. The beta variant, a mutation identified last year in South Africa, also may have come from an HIV-infected person.
Read more: Covid Variants Risk Rises in S. Africa With Biggest HIV Epidemic
3. How widespread is it?
It appears that “omicron spreads very rapidly, and can be spread between people who are double vaccinated,” U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson told reporters on Nov. 27. The U.K., which has detected two Covid cases caused by omicron, extended a temporary ban on flights from Angola, Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia on Nov. 28. The nations were added to the U.K.’s so-called red list, which has included South Africa, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia and Zimbabwe since Nov. 26. Early PCR test results showed that 90% of 1,100 new cases reported Wednesday in the South African province that includes Johannesburg were caused by the new variant, according to Tulio de Oliveira, a bio-informatics professor who runs gene-sequencing institutions at two South African universities. In neighboring Botswana, officials recorded four cases on Nov. 22, in people who were fully vaccinated. In Hong Kong, a traveler from South Africa was found to have the variant, and another case was identified in a person quarantined in a hotel room across the hall. Israel has also identified one case in a man who recently traveled to Malawi. Cases have also been reported in Belgium, Italy, Germany and the Netherlands.
4. How did markets respond?
News of the new variant roiled financial markets Friday as equity benchmarks dropped across the board, with travel stocks hit hard. The S&P 500 Index declined as much as 2.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank as much as 2.95%, while in Europe the Stoxx 600 fell 3.7% for its biggest drop since June 2020. Treasuries surged, with the 10-year yield dropping 13 basis points. The Japanese yen emerged as the main haven currency of the day, with the dollar falling. Oil tumbled more than 10%, falling through $70 a barrel in New York for the first time since late September.
For more: Nervy Week for Markets Ends With Wild Swings on New Covid Strain
LISTEN: Andy Pekosz, professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, discuss the new coronavirus variant with Bloomberg’s John Tucker.Source: Bloomberg
5. How are other countries responding?
Other countries have followed the U.K. in preventing flights from African countries. Singapore is restricting entry for people who have been in South Africa and nearby nations within the last 14 days, while the European Union proposed member nations halt air travel from southern Africa. Australia tightened border rules for travelers from southern Africa, while India stepped up screening of incoming travelers from South Africa, Botswana and Hong Kong. South Africa’s Health Minister Joe Phaahla said new travel bans imposed on the country, particularly by the EU, were “unjustified.” Governments are also encouraging additional vaccinations to boost immunity.
6. How worrisome is this variant?
It’s too early to say. In a situation where the hyper-transmissible delta variant is resurgent in Europe, the emergence and spread of Omicron would pose a “very high” risk, according to the ECDC. The WHO said the variant “has been detected at faster rates than previous surges in infection, suggesting that this variant may have a growth advantage.” But it also noted that there are fewer than 100 whole genomic sequences of the new strain available, which could add to the time it takes to study how it compares to previous strains and its impact on Covid therapies and vaccines. Viruses mutate all the time, with the changes sometimes making the virus weaker or sometimes making it more adept at evading antibodies and infecting humans. Covid vaccines have shown they are effective against previous variants and pills being developed by Merck & Co. and Pfizer Inc. may also provide new treatments.
7. What should we look out for next?
In the U.S., which recently lifted a year-long ban on tourism from much of the world, top medical adviser Anthony Fauci said he wants to see more data. BioNTech expects the first data from laboratory tests about how it interacts with its vaccine within two weeks.
The Reference Shelf
The WHO statement on the Omicron variant.
A Bloomberg Opinion column by David Fickling on Covid variants.
Bloomberg Intelligence says we should worry about the new variant.
Why the New Covid Variant Became a Concern to Scientists
Travel bans and other snap defenses that countries threw up against omicron, the new Covid-19 variant, are buying time for scientists to answer key questions that could prevent another wave of deaths.
Labs in Europe, the U.S. and Africa are preparing for tests to see how the new variant is likely to behave in people who’ve been vaccinated or previously infected. Real-world research will be important too, as health authorities monitor the outbreak in South Africa closely to find out how much more transmissible the new variant will be as it spreads and whether it’s more dangerous or deadly.
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