Wind & Solar’s Insatiable Demand For Minerals Beyond Belief

December 1, 2021


The raw material cost ratio for batteries is particularly useful to know, accounting for 50 to 70% of battery costs. Perfectly credible projections suggest lithium and cobalt prices could rise tenfold by 2030, which would mean the total battery cost could could rise by 500% or more. At this level, electric cars will simply be unaffordable for most drivers, even if economies of scale drive down manufacturing costs. That is assuming enough EVs are even produced to meet demand. The IEA forecast that only half of demand for lithium and cobalt will be met by 2030. With long development lead times, this shortfall appears to be baked in. Demand for critical minerals will carry on rising exponentially long after 2030, which after all only marks the beginning of this clean energy transition. It is hard to see the position not being much worse by 2040, by when the IEA expect demand for lithium and cobalt will be 42 and 21 times current levels respectively. Yet western leaders are blindly ploughing on with their green agenda, seemingly oblivious to the cliff edge facing us.

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