Well done on your recent posts. Happy to see you are less fixated on short selling although, I concede short selling and options trading should be part of a sophisticated trading strategy. If you are very long a stock and well in the money, probably should take out some insurance is my point. I haven't done this with LTR so took some heavy paper losses in the past week, but I remind myself how much our chairmen must have lost on paper and that gives me some perspective and I remind myself where we were 12 months ago.
I am one of those long term holders who doesn't post as much anymore, not that my posts are anywhere near as valuable as the posters to whom I'm sure you were referring to. The number of people coming onto the forum to post negatively does upset me. I also don't enjoy seeing all the replies to these posters. I don't want to waste my time sifting through all this garbage so I'm slowly moving away from the forum. The forum has definitely changed in the last 6 months, it ain't what it used to be.
Nothing else to do this Saturday so I'll give you my thoughts.
When we were stuck between 10 and 12c, the lithium price was still commencing its run up, governments were only starting to set their climate targets and the rate of uptake of EV's was still debated. The depth of the KV deposit and limited metallurgical testing done at the time was enough to keep some well informed posters on the investment sidelines. At the time, I remember there was still debate by some whether lithium could be replaced as the main energy metal. There was also the threat that lithium was said to be so plentiful and easily got that lithium prices would remain suppressed forever. New Direct Lithium Extraction techniques and "new" Geothermal Brine Deposits would greatly add to lithium supply and many traditional hard rock deposits would not be able to survive due to long term market oversupply and depressed prices.
When COVID struck, everything got hit, so it was a golden opportunity to add shares for the believers in TG and those that understood that economical lithium deposits weren't that plentiful and also understood what the the impending energy disruption meant for future lithium demand. In retrospect, you could have picked any number of lithium shares at the time and done very well. The whole sector exploded at the same time the V-shaped recovery got underway and many major economies began to focus more seriously on climate change. It became clear ICE vehicles would be phased out and replaced by EV's. With the focus firmly on the switch to batteries, we saw massive investment across the globe in Megafactories to meet the future battery demand. It seems to me, at least some of that investment was made without enough concern as to where their lithium supply would come from. As time passed, more was understood about DLE, how it is not one formula fits all projects. In fact, it is very project specific and, for many projects, challenges still remain in developing economically and environmentally sustainable processes at scale that can serve as a foundation for the lithium-dependent low-carbon economy. So we are still going to depend heavily on lithium supply from traditional brine evaporative techniques and hard rock deposits for the foreseeable future. The market also started to place a premium on the better greenfield deposits as clearly new deposits would be needed to meet the rising demand. Possessing the 4th largest hard rock deposit, at the right grades to produce 6% spodumene, and in a world class jurisdiction saw us re-rated. Our DFS and DSS have only solidified us as one of the most significant greenfield projects in the pipeline.
Our management team has continued to deliver at every level. We continue to meet every time line and the economics of the project have continued to improve with the progress of time.
The one thing that really sets us apart from other projects is our chairman and his investment in this company. He is absolutely "dinky-di" and you can be absolutely certain that every decision made is completely aligned with investor's interests. I have found LTR a very easy hold knowing management has my back. I don't just say this off the cuff either, I have gone to the trouble to have had a phone hook up with TG, DR & CW in the past to discuss the KV deposit.
I think they have raised capital very well at every stage of the project, with as little dilution as possible. This latest raise was a master stroke in my book. I think it is a bit unreasonable to hope the price was even higher before raising $450million. You can't expect to get the right institutional investors on your register without offering up something to them. Discussions were obviously happening for a little while. The company weighed up all the options and took the best one to allow us to accelerate the project to production. TG and TO are very aware of the market conditions and want the option to be bring this earlier to market if it is in our interest. To be almost fully financed with minimum dilution and remain completely independent elevates us above other lithium companies imo.
This Omicron event may offer up a similar investment opportunity to what we saw in early 2020. It appears it is spreading very fast but I'm prepared to bet it is not as virulent although, the markets won't get any certainty over this for at least a couple of weeks. Once the markets realises that a highly transmissible less virulent strain could be our way out of this pandemic we could rally strongly in January. Of course we have drilling news and ASX 200 to factor in before January as well. However, when I think about my LTR investment now, I try not to be short-sighted. Instead I imagine what we will look like by 2030. That is truly mind blowing.
GLTAH
G
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