Drilling Again Tomorrow, page-20

IMO you need to stretch your timeframe out 2040. Gas to electric conversion, where practical, is a massive pain in the ass and very expensive. Only 20% is used for elec gen and seems that will only increase as gas is perfectly symbiotic with renewables during those lulls. China is selling 70,000 EVs per month now up from 20,000 at the start of the year (watch electric Viking on YouTube - he wears rad muscle shirts and has a beard) in Australia I think by 2025 probably 50% car sales will be electric and 2030 it could be getting up there to 90%, however the fleet might not hit 50% until 2035. Level 5 automated driving will probably eliminate 80% of car fleet by 2035 too when ownership doesn’t make sense as a 20k trip will only cost 2 in driverless world (ref. tony Seba) Gas is a feedstock which can’t be replaced easily in most instances. Gas is awesome, it’s clean and food for life on earth. I trust BP and certain gas consumption won’t peak until 2035-2040 even in the mist rapid decarbonisation effort. Regarding oil… I’m putting on more MAYOnaise