d_ricardo Can I please just better understand your EPS calcs.
I have had a quick look at the Annual Report. There are some stunning numbers.
Just looking at the graphs on p5 the outstanding result is in EBITDA. During the 2nd half of F08 EBITDA was something less than, but approaching, $6m. The 2nd half of 2009 (in which only aprox 3 months were under Direct Charge Regime - DGR) returned EBITDA of around $18m !!!! Giddy up! Now compare this to even the 1st half of 2009 where EBITDA, which is traditionally seasonally a bit lower, was about $7m. That's a kick in the 2nd half of about $11m - of which only half of this half was under the DCR. Am I missing something? Is there an abnormal from the divestment that I have mixed in here? If not ........... One has to speculate, without reference to quarterlies, that the DCR has been largely responsible for a BOOST of possibly $9m in the quarter. Added to the reported base for F09 extrapolation is looking like a circa $47m full year EBITDA, without any organic growth (or decline)
Understanding corporate behaviour in the face of "windfall" profits most management would do a "clean up" while the opportunity of reporting above expectations presented itself. They might even find reason to increase provisions and 'slow' some profits at year end. There could be many extra dollars in the pot that are not clearly visible!
ATM numbers during 2008-09 increased yoy by about 500 - about 10% on the previous year. I am making no allowance for organic growth. We would hope for some. Of course, latent potential exists, through profits, cash generation and a healthy balance sheet to fund aquisitions of additional fleets of ATMs, if available. I note your comments re JBH and agree - mine was a rough analogy. I also note you comments on end F2011 suggesting cash of $50m - $60m on the balance sheet. This reflects the power of a super high cash flow business with relatively fixed costs. $50m - $60m can't just sit and you are way too conservative with it sitting at a discount to the cash rate. (not criticising your numbers, just highlighting the big upside that exists off your very conservative base)
I expect there are many who have big profits built into the SP and they might exit over time or in a rush in a retracement, but no matter how I look at the fundamentals of this company they look stunning. Unless your intimate knowledge and long term involvement can tell me otherwise I think I should just keep buying and holding as much as I can. I'm interested in your valued comments.
CUS Price at posting:
$2.99 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
