In my opinion, its a horrific eighteen months but its a simple matter of showing outperformance for a year or two that places the valuation back towards $60, especially on current dividend yield.
The worry is outflows. Its possible those are likely to continue holding through the storm considering at this point investors in the fund have already taken the losses, pulling out now after losing 17% on the index isn't going to save them harm that has already been done.
I can see a scenario where this hits $15-20 and provides terrific buying opportunities, but again either the company shows outperformance or the reality is they don't have a business model. Currently they're priced as if they are about to lose sizeable amounts from outflows, this could offer opportunity for buyers of the stock in better case scenario.
When I look at the divorce situation and the CEO heading for the door it makes me theorize that there are internal worries within the company and for Hamish that suggest they're well aware of the potential outflow armageddon scenario I described. Cutting that underperformance from -17% to -3% isn't going to cut it, they need clear direction of 1-3%+. On a month to month basis currently it isn't occurring.
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