Of course a US contract is baked in, it's all AF talks about!!!
You do know that 4DX has a market cap of $250m (even more when fully diluted) on no operational revenue (or insignificant at best). That's a pretty high valuation in my mind. The US opportunity is the only thing keeping this stock from going down to 10c.
Here's why it's not a multi-billion dollar company now based on where it could be if the tech gets fully adopted, off the top of my head:
1. Most (probably 99%+) institutional funds won't touch this type of stock with a barge pole due to no reported revenue (let alone profit), no matter how good the tech is. It won't pass the filters. They like to see money coming in the door before they jump on board. At the moment 4DX is a plaything of retail mugs like you and I, and day traders who couldn't give a stuff about fundamentals.
2. EXECUTION RISK! What happens if they don't sign the deals that would make them grow at the pace expected. What if the deal flow is slower. What if there's some other tech that's just as amazing that you don't know about? What happens if AF is hit by a car next week?
3. Time value of money. We're not expected to get significant revenue for a few years yet. The medical industry is a slow moving beast. A dollar now is worth more than a dollar in a few years. Funds generally operate on a discount rate of 8%ish to my knowledge.
4. There are other high risk opportunities around for retail investors (i.e. competition for funds).
5. EXECUTION RISK! Did I say that one already?
6. 4DX isn't even that well known among retail investors. How many of your friends have heard of it (and not because you told them). Look at how many people post on this forum (or even view it). I've never seen it mentioned on reddit.
7. EXECUTION RISK!
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Last
53.5¢ |
Change
0.005(0.94%) |
Mkt cap ! $219.6M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
53.0¢ | 53.5¢ | 51.5¢ | $87.23K | 165.4K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 1972 | 53.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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53.5¢ | 18244 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 1972 | 0.530 |
1 | 127273 | 0.525 |
1 | 3831 | 0.515 |
3 | 20039 | 0.510 |
4 | 34362 | 0.505 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.540 | 11121 | 4 |
0.545 | 180000 | 2 |
0.550 | 40000 | 1 |
0.570 | 41923 | 2 |
0.575 | 50000 | 2 |
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