The Horse has Bolted, page-39

Hi @Chella

Flows are difficult to estimate but I will do my best.

I have made a spreadsheet using logic similar to @lost which he shared in this post and estimated 1,473 million of outflows for the month of November.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-funds-under-management-november-2021.6467885/page-23?post_id=58108267

The method involves using last months FUM, calculating performance over the period and arriving at what the estimate should be, if higher than estimated they had inflows, if lower than estimated they had outflows.

I have tracked since January 2021, on a strategy by strategy basis.
Note that there are differences between expectations and actuals as it depends when they put the money in or took the money out due + effect of compounding over the month.




As you can see the effect of when the flow occurs is large (i.e taking money out in the first week of the month vs last week of the month),
estimating +276m in inflows of Sept. quarter when in actual it was -1,527.
Global equities continue to suffer increasing outflows, notably infrastructure had large inflows last month although performance is now starting to lag benchmark on 6 month and 1 year.

One thing I have noted, was a large uptick in volume on MGOC (Representing 14b of retail funds), volume increasing ~2.5x the 4w average volume which occurred around the same time as the CEO exit, divorce news and related media articles. If retail outflows were $617 million last quarter, they will be significantly higher this coming quarter.



Institutional flows are more 'lumpier' than retail flows, one large transaction can skew the data quite a bit.