I agree this is too low to be risk free and that someone must know something. The current risks are:
The Scheme is subject to customary conditions, a condition relating to the delay or reversal of the MarsdenPoint refinery to an import-only terminal, regulatory approvals from NZCC clearance and OIO approval,shareholder approval and ultimately approval by the High Court of New Zealand
Completion, following regulatory approvals, is expected in the first half of calendar 2022. As part of its NZCCclearance application, Ampol has committed to the full divestment of the New Zealand “Gull” business; the ZBoard and management will support Ampol through the necessary regulatory stages with the NZCC and OIOThere is regulatory risk for Ampol as if not approved within 12 months, $20m is payable by Ampol to Zel. Perhaps the chance of this happening has increased and retail as usual are the last to know.
Since there will be major supply chain benefits for our Kiwi cousins, I can't see how or why it wouldn't go through. The upside from the current SP is 30c or 42c if not implemented by 31st March but does go ahead. In percent terms it is about 10-12% which isn't bad for 3 months investment. So it indeed begs the question "why exit now"? If it fails due to regulation, we get $20m which should cover costs.
ZEL Price at posting:
$3.31 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
