technical analysis help please, page-28

Just to touch base on the charts before I go and "earn" my living.

We saw NMS retrace to the 38.2% Fib level on the last leg down (90 -> 75) and bounce off that. It also coincided with a bounce off the 41DMA.

Y/day took us back to that same 38.2% Fib level and again we sit at 75c.

However there was a decisive breach of the 41DMA so we generally have to look to the 90DMA for support. On the chart, we can see that the lowest point in the trend since March (July 13th) bounced off the 90DMA before the trend resumed.

The 50% Fib level is 70c, which coincides nicely with the 90DMA. If both of these are broken it becomes messy and we are basically looking at giving up the entire last leg up, which would be a test of 50c.

Indicators are oversold on the daily. Stochastic is whipping which signals lack of commitment from buyers.

The weekly stochastics are in overbought territory.

For anyone else here who uses TA, I would be interested to know what you think about the 5-year monthly chart. Looks like a massive head and shoulders pattern is playing out. The head is Dec 2007, with two shoulders either side, which rejected 90c - one in April 2005, the other Oct 2009. Thoughts???