anyone knows anything please???, page-5

re: anyone knows anything - phil jacquelyn Phil, you make a good point about the longevity of the satellite network. This was one of the first issues I explored when considering investment. Not much point buying into the enterprise if it’s only good for a couple of years.

Turns out, however, there was plenty of ‘over-engineering’ went into all of the Iridium hardware. No single design team wanted to be responsible for the early demise of the system, so there was plenty of ‘fat’ built into all of the sub-systems from the outset.

The designers of the propulsion system, for example, sent aloft 30kg of fuel per satellite. Given that maintaining orbits requires only between 1-1.5Kg of fuel per year, you can gauge the redundancy built into system. (For those who can’t be bothered doing the maths, that provides for a 20 year lifespan on the worst-case, 1.5 Kg, scenario.) This is true of all the sub-systems - communications, telemetry, everything - I am told.

A report by the respected Aerospace Corp, a firm often used by the US government for military and other work, gave the expected lifespan as between 2012 and 2014.

Only a couple of months ago (21st July), Chairman and CEO Carmen Lloyd said in a Company Status Report: “…Iridium has achieved dramatic results in the last three years. We now have positive EBITDA (Earnings Before Income Taxes Depreciation and Amortization). Our user base has exceeded 100,000 subscribers. Our satellite network is demonstrating EXCEPTIONAL LONGEVITY WITH CONTINUED SERVICE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TEN YEARS without the launch of additional satellites...” (my emphasis).

So I think we can put longevity bogey safely to rest.

However, your warning – that “This stock, imo, is 100% speculatative, so BE CAREFUL.” – while in my view overstated (100%? “speculatATive”, indeed!), is timely. In buying Quadrant, folk should be aware that they’re not purchasing Telstra!

The speculation, and what I see as the OPPORTUNITY for the canny player in this ‘wilder’ end of the market, is that there is as yet unrecognised value in the stock.

However, it’ll be the market that ultimately decides. Hence, as I so often end by saying: all the usual caveats apply.