MFG Fair Value, page-78

Happy holidays all. Trying to figure this one out for myself. Views on these quick/indicative figures are welcome.

As at 30/06/2021:
Debt = nil
Cash, term deposits, etc = $213.2m
Mgmt fees earned but not paid = $113.7m
Investments in own funds = $452.5m
Barrenjoey stake (at cost) = $114.5m
Guzman stake (at cost) = $102.9m
FinClear stake (at cost) = $19.7m
Total financial assets = $1.01bn

Average mgmt fee for FY2021 = 0.61%
FUM as at 30/11/2021 = $116.4bn
SJP mandate = $18bn
Remaining FUM = $98.4bn
Assumed mgmt fees = $600.2m
Expenses for FY2021 = $106.9m
Assumed pre-tax profit = $493.3m
FY2021 effective tax rate = 21.4%
Assumed post-tax profit = $387.7m

Today's market cap = $3.89bn
Implied value of business = $2.88bn
Current P/E of business = 7.4

I'm comparing these blokes to PTM, for which the equivalent figures are (simplifying things) something in the order of: financial assets $262.5m; assumed post-tax profit $140.1m; today's market cap $1.54bn; implied value of business $1.28bn; current P/E of business 9.1.In other words, MFG's business is trading at an 18.7% relative discount to PTM's, using very rough/back-of-envelope figures. To close that discount, MFG's post-tax profit would need to drop to $316.5m, which suggests the market has priced in FUM dropping a further 15.1% (from $98.4bn to $83.5bn). All of this assumes no cost-cutting so all lost revenue equals lost profit.

(Note, in case the "quick/indicative/rough/back-of-envelope" qualifications above didn't make it obvious, these figures are extremely high-level estimates, designed only to give a flavour...)