My $2.50 is based on review of several analyst sources (only using ones not with a finger in the pie). The general opinion of the valuations is that Myer was worth more in the realms of $2.75 to $2.95 IF they actually manage to make a 30c EPS which most doubt. I don't generally buy unless I think I am getting something for less than it is worth and so there is some safety and reasonable upside (I think upside at $2.50 is about 10-15% based on above estimate of "real" value). How many INDEPENDENT brokers are touting Myer as anything other than greatly overpriced. A very bad indicator of true value is the PE firms have happily (gleefully I would think) dumped EVERY SINGLE SHARE they owned into the float - how is that for confidence in the value of the stock and the likelihood of a price increase post listing.
Being a well-known name it may trade at above true value (like DJ, telstra, and others do) but I don't see much point holding a stock above true value as there is more downside than upside.
I think $2.50 is very achievable given the market is getting the wobbles and volatility is increasing. If we get another big market selloff then sub-$2.00 is very achievable and even $1.50 is far from safe.
The amazing thing from today is that the price was so weak despite likely big buying from index funds that will have to include it when the index listings are next updated.
I believe this will be weak for at least another week so won't even be considering buying until a strong bottom is evident.
MYR Price at posting:
$3.75 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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