Back of the envelope calcs and forecasts that I call with conservative forecasts. Focused just on Mt C and OZ stage 1 based on the Dec quarter only. Does not include any of the growth options that will start to come into effect in 2022 and ignores Borax.
Just a very simple play at the swing in momentum and how $$$$ will change across the next few years. Take this and add everything else into the equation.
Many are comparing 2018 to now. I hold no grudges about anyone taking a profit, and I applaud them for their conviction to buy low and sell high. When Model Y finally comes on sale I will be booking some profit as well to buy one (my way to thank Tesla for changing my life). Some are selling with X00% profits,absolutely beautiful. Beat the term deposit or the average super return my a life time or more. Well done, that's all I can say.
To those uncertain of what to do. Firstly, go with your gut. I also provide my take on the comparison:
In 2018 the lithium market was behold to Chinese EV growth. Trade war started, China lost focus (and manipulation occurred to delay the EV boom by oil/OEM powers to be) and the percentage of EV sales lost is what impacted demand, Market was so small that supply turned positive. As a result the powers to be got a chain of events that pushed back the timeline of available raw material growth going forward. If Chinese sales did not dip and grew as was expected there would never have been a supply surplus. That dip, caused the mayhem or what I personally call the once in a lifetime wealth generation opportunity. Many, many investors learned many hard lessons. Some would have departed share investing for life, some will have learned very valuable lessons that will help them into the future, some will simply repeat history.
In 2022 the story is different. It is not just a China story anymore. It is a world story and most OEMs are in the game. This is a battle for market share. Take your foot off the brake and someone else will steal it. This hockey stick growth will be key and will push the supply deficit for years to come. The biggest risk comes from inflation. Price wise those selling the rocks are at the start of the chain (good place to be). But market turmoil can mean, throw the baby out with the bath water type scenario. Should that happen, only means another opportunity for those that want to accumulate. Remember nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Inflation, may also mean less people will be able to afford an EV, but again, due to the market share battle I think the priority and battle for sales will be on the EV front as this is the new frontier and noone wants to be called the next Kodak.
Long term story out to 2030 is pretty much set in. Consider the forecasts and risks and do what is best for you, given your risk and reward tolerances and the cash you need short to long term. Money is useless to you when dead, learn to have balance and spend and enjoy life along the way.
Happy investing everyone!
