cricket run scoring is serially correlated. if bairstow is 'in form' he will keep scoring runs at a higher average. if you assume monthly flows are independant and have no correlation then you dont understand funds management. seems you dont understand cricket either.
to assume MFG long run average net inflow (the batting average) applies going forward is foolish. the fundamentals have changed.
SJP withdrew 100% of their FUM. they cannot withdraw more. will others withdraw yes. the difference here is retail comprises thousands of small investors that behave in a similar way that is more predictable. institutional far more concentrated, and lumpy. and so no i am not extrapolating monthly institutional trends like i am with retail.
Ann: Funds Under Management - December 2021, page-63
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