Hi
@Chella and
@SP007I wanted to show the downside potential of part of Magellan's portfolio. In simple, if interest rates overshoot and the market goes into a panic then I believe the Magellan portfolio has the potential to drop by 29.73%, see table here:
The Left Hand side contains the global equity holdings, so far is down a little for January (this assumes they have stayed the same from Sep QTR).
The Right Hand side contains the current earnings, current PE Ratio and historical average PE Ratio. It is based on last nights closing prices.
While this doesn't mean that Magellan doesn't have downside protection, I just haven't seen the performance of the Magellan portfolio be protected from BABA and Ten Cent previously.
If the above is extrapolated to Global Equities FUM, currently $A64.931B from Chella's Table above, Magellan will end up with FUM of
$A45.627B [$64.931-29.73%($19.304B)=$45.627B].
Obvious things like AUD/USD exchange rate will come into play, however this is if markets move to the downside next week (not likely as I believe it will play out like early 2000's and take a couple of years).
Best of Luck
Lost
(20min delay)