Ann: AVITA Medical Announces Preliminary Unaudited Results, page-3

Management continues to surprise on the downside - makes it hard to take a substantial position in this company, as I continue to ratchet down my expectations on the financials *despite* the technology and the de-risking events mounting up.

I looked at the quarterlies in a bit more detail to try and get a true gauge of sales excluding Barda. They have this ~$9m Barda emergency preparedness contract, of which $7.6m is booked as 'revenue' for procurement of +5000 Recell kits. The remaining income is booked seperately, so won't be included in this revenue announcement. In Q2, they had around $3.6m in additional revenue due to this procurement, which dropped in Q3 to around $86k. I believe that is now completely over, and will be $0 in Q4 (current reporting).

So if you look at the previous say 5 quarters you can see the trend: $5m (3Q20), $5.1m (4Q20), $8.7m (~$5.7m ex Barda 1Q21), $10.3m ($6.7m ex Barda in 2Q21), $7m ( $6.9m ex Barda in 3Q21) and $6.9m (4Q21).

So revenue is up 35% yoy excluding the Barda emergency procurement, but is flat quarter on quarter and has been this way since around 2Q21. Clearly, their recent FDA approvals are yet to have any inroads on their performance. Personally, I expected more.