I'd expand on this:
Business Operations
- Repeated failure to meet production guidance.
- Constant turnover in key positions (just scroll through the ASX announcements) indicating deep seated problems with the business culture.
Investment and financing:
- Raised capital not once but twice in less than a year, at heavy discounts to previous lows.
In the last instance, our management effectively valued this company at a mere $750m (45c / share), issued new debt at punishing terms (10.75%) to a coterie of investors one of which is the major shareholder (EMG) then to cap it off, paid through the nose to start redeeming large chunks of this debt only a few months later.
- Sale and leaseback of property & equipment at a time of cyclical lows in coal price - again almost certainly at extortionate rates.
Basically, they've had the knack of picking the absolute worst timing for these decisions.
Governance
- Debt issue to EMG as above
- The XCoal debacle - sales made to a related party which was then unable to pay for a few months. One can only guess how much XCoal's relationship with our management influenced this, and the chance that our money was at risk.
- Similar to this, the pricing of 2022 forward sales to its US customers at an average of $187/t. Given much higher current and forward prices elsewhere, one wonders again the extent to which this reflects "arms length" negotiation.
- A board with CVs that are superficially impressive but suggest more experience with mergers, acquisitions and other "financial engineering" than real value creation.
None of these characters has any significant skin in the game at a personal level - other than Mr Spindler they don't own any more shares than the average "Mum and Dad" investor.
This is a 3/10 business run by 1/10 management. At this price it's a hold, but barely.
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