What happens to a stock from a noise-maker to a game-changer, page-22

This is a great thread, and gets to the crux of my problem in working out a full commercial valuation for BrainChip.

My investing philosophy is pretty straightforward. Look for companies who have disruptive technologies in niche segments, well protected by patents, where these niche segments will become mainstream within 5 years. There are many other hurdles to pass through before I part with my moolah, quality of leadership being a large one, but that's the guts of it.

It's then about estimating market size in 5 years, likely company share, margins on offer etc to arrive at an estimated MC if all goes to plan, and then building an investment plan around that.

While it is always difficult to estimate market size and share, at least there is normally some data/existing market knowledge to assist.
In one company I hold they are looking to disrupt a 150 year old blood pressure monitoring market by measuring central blood pressure on the consumer. I can get my head around that and put an estimated value on success
Another company has a drug that is endeavouring to be a first in class, best in class FTO inhibitor. I can get my head around that and put an estimated value on success.
Etc.

But BrainChip ... it is incredibly difficult to imagine the market size, let alone put a value to it. You are faced with trying to be a futurist, understanding the multitude of applications for edge devices and our role on them. If you accept that Akida works, how the hell do you get a handle on potential size, it beyond what I can imagine. And I believe this is what the investing community is beginning to understand, and why the chartists are pulling their hair out. For me, my holding is all in my super, avoiding any temptation to sell. Minimum 5 year hold, and hopefully by then I have the information available to better estimate the MC of BrainChip.