@88crazyhorse
All good, not rude at all. I enjoy the discussion and certainly don't want to come off as negative about AGY, otherwise I wouldn't have a sizeable portion of my portfolio invested in the company. I understand your optimism based on the fact that AGY has produced a few bags of BG quality carbonate, but everything I've read indicates that producing at scale (in the thousands of tonnes) is a totally different story. Note the screenshot below from when Orocobre (now Allkem) first produced BG quality lithium carbonate at Olaroz. Importantly, it's from ten years ago and they're still only achieving 58% BG quality. I think that if you don't anticipate a significant portion of technical grade for AGY's ramp-up phase (at a minimum), you're bound for disappointment.
Again I'm certainly not trying to down-ramp, I just think it's important to test these assumptions against what's been achieved by AGY's more advanced peers, who also initially produced small batches of BG quality lithium carbonate. I think a good example was Elon Musk's claim that Tesla had enough lithium clay deposits in Nevada to sustain all US EV production, and all that was needed was a little table salt. He's gone eerily quiet on this subject, and in my opinion this is because producing small quantities of lithium in a lab is far simpler than producing at scale. Forgive my scepticism, but until AGY proves their capability to produce BG quality at scale, I have to assume that it is likely to perform in line with those who came before them, which means a sizeable portion of technical grade until they got the process dialled in.
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