Yeah I assumed they would pay the US$400k from cash too. They may be able to pay the remaining US$1.8m but if they could they surely would have done so at the initial payment date instead of deferring it.
Baobob I'm pretty sure is the subsidiary that owns the Makhado project and only the Makhado project, though I am unsure which subsidiary owns the Vele mine.
I'm pretty sure the GSP is protected and outside of Baobob and owned between the companies Chapudi Coal, Kwezi Mining and MbeuYashi, so I think selling down a proportion of Makhado within Baobob seems to be the best solution. Whether thats to the IDC or an external party, I'd probably prefer an outside party that has coal experience rather than have it owned by the IDC, its better for them to own debt instruments rather than equity. A sell down of say 35-40% of Baobob would leave MCM with about 27%-32% of Baobob which would enable them to be fully funded through the $17m IDC loan that hasn't been drawn down.
A sell down of that 35-40% for say clearance of the $1.8m and $10.3m debt and maybe a partial carry on some development expenses. The makhado project had a NBV of A$34.5m in the latest accounts, so this would seem feasible. US$1.8m, plus US$10.3m plus a US$2.5m development carry would be about A$20m or broadly close to NBV. At these %'s, that would leave MCM with a development budget of about US$17m-$20m less the $2.5m capex carry so around US$14.5m-$17.5m which would be covered by the new IDC loan.
The Makhado project should be an attractive asset. Forecast payback was 2 years with HCC at $140 and thermal coal at $70 so with rising coal prices, it becomes more attractive.
Whilst selling so much equity in Makhado may not be ideal, what it does do, is guarantee MCM holders that we will actually get Makhado to production. At roughly a 30% equity portion, that would equate to around A$14m EBITDA per year. Valuation should easily double from here based on $14m EBITDA (not including the other producing asset) versus an Enterprise Value of A$12m and borrowings (the new IDC loan) of A$20m. 4 times EBITDA would move to an EV of $56m compared to $32m (assuming SP doesn't moved between now and when drawdown on the new IDC loan occurs). No value for the GSP would be priced into this, but that asset has massive upside, and protecting the 74% of GSP has to be a key part of what they do with Makhado.
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