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Jass

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20/01/22

18:08

Post #: 59019471
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Originally posted by ContraryJ: ↑

I would strongly suggest You go back and listen to AGM conference Call. AL told us that there sell price is about 10% lower than market. Fridays Price for NdPr was 902 RMB / KG with VAT. So 902 X .87 =767 RMB / KG no VAT. todays exchange rate is 0.22 = 186 AUD minus AL 10 % = AUD 151 which is lower than your $171

Or doing a quick check from another direction in Q1 they made 1255 of NDPR and 3166. Total REE O, so NdPr was 40 % of production Lets assume that what was stuck on boats at end of Q had the same proportions.
They sold 2724 tons so 1089T of NdPr and 1634 La and Ce Now La and Ce are not worth much remember AL's Bride analogy in AGM but starting with 8.5RMB and doing same thing as we did for NdPr above lets say1.46 AUD
So LaCe 1.46 X 1634 T = AUD 2.5 M
Revenue was 92 M Q1 so 89.5 M for NdPr so 89.5 M / 1089 = AUD 82.00 for NdPr Which is much lower than $171.00

Now I took two short cuts
First I included no SEG. But SEG sells for Far more than Ce and La and maybe NdPr so this would have lowered the NdPr price
Next I rounded down CE from 8.75 to 8.50. If I had not done this NDPR would be lower total $ and therefore a lower price.

I have done this in my spread sheets for a long time it is always much lower than market. So here is my challenge to you. Try doing NdPr with ASP = $44.6 /KG. 2.5 X .60 = 1.5 . 44.6 -1.5 = 43.1/ .4= AUD 107.75.
Go back and do these numbers on a few past Qs. I think you will find your numbers are consistently high by over 50%. Yes, I think the number AL gave at AGM was low. She knows the real number and does not want to revile it. She just wanted the people like AUS that is always saying they get more to stop it.

Do not misunderstand me Even at AUD 100.00 for NdPr Lynas will dogreat. Cash will roll in. Profits will go up. Enough to justify an AUD 11B market Cap I doubt it. Looking forward to your reply.
i make mistakes if I made one please tell me and I will fix it and apologize. No excuses.

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You might want to revisit how you get ex vat price. You dont get it by multiplying by 87% (to remove 13% vat) you devide by 1.13.

Granted, using your figure of 902, it still comes out less than the $171, but your leaving 1.5% on/off the table.

$100 x 87% = $87
$100 ÷ 1.13 = $88.50

LYC Price at posting: $11.16 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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Last $5.90		Change -0.160(2.64%)		Mkt cap ! $5.547B

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